An international security expert analyzes regional impact of U.S.-Israel war on Iran

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+ Fresh Air Wild Card with Rachel Martin It's Been a Minute Planet Money Get NPR+ More Podcasts & Shows Search Newsletters NPR Shop The Best Music of 2025 All Songs Considered Tiny Desk Music Features Live Sessions About NPR Diversity Support Careers Press Ethics An international security expert analyzes regional impact of U.S.-Israel war on Iran NPR's Scott Simon talks to Michael Wahid Hanna of the International Crisis Group about how the spillover of the war between Iran, Israel, and the U.S.

+ World An international security expert analyzes regional impact of U.S.-Israel war on Iran March 7, 20267:44 AM ET Heard on Weekend Edition Saturday Scott Simon An international security expert analyzes regional impact of U.S.-Israel war on Iran Listen &middot; 5:42 5:42 Transcript Toggle more options Download Embed Embed "> <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5736062/nx-s1-9678711" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> Transcript NPR's Scott Simon talks to Michael Wahid Hanna of the International Crisis Group about how the spillover of the war between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. into other countries might change regional dynamics. Sponsor Message SCOTT SIMON, HOST: It's been a week since the U.S. and Israel began the war on Iran. Now at least nine other countries have been drawn into the conflict as Iran retaliates against oil and gas installations, as well as U.S. bases and embassies. Israel has also bombed sites in Lebanon. Hezbollah has sent bombs into Israel. Today, Iran's president said that Iran regretted their strikes on neighboring countries and would hold off strikes if attacks didn't originate from those countries. What might develop in the region? Michael Wahid Hanna is U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group. Thanks so much for being with us.

+ MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Good to be with you. SIMON: And we spoke in June when you had concerns about a broader regional war as the U.S. and Israel carried out limited strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Is what we've seen over the past week playing out as you thought it might? HANNA: In many ways. I mean, I think when we spoke last in June, I noted how unstable the situation was and that there had already been some concern that this might not be the end of the story. And what we've seen since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is this kind of regionalization of conflict that I think many of us have worried about for quite some time. And in previous cases, I think we've averted worst-case scenarios, but this looks quite different. As you mentioned, regional countries have been drawn into the fight. They've taken, in some cases, the brunt of the focus from Iran. And key U.S. bases have been targeted. And so this is a very different picture than in June, when Iran, you know, basically telegraphed its retaliation and the war at that point, after 12 days, came to something of a quick end. And it's hard to see this particular conflict following that kind of scenario. SIMON: Might this war make Middle Eastern countries rethink their relationship with the U.S.? HANNA: It's very possible. You know, I think we've heard a great deal about the general crunch in terms of air defenses, that air defenses are running low. And so one great concern for the countries in the Gulf, in particular, that are facing so much incoming fire from Iran is that they are going to run out of interceptors and lose the ability to protect themselves. And, of course, the interceptors are incredible short supply. You know, the Americans need them. The Israelis need them. Other theaters need them. And so this question of whether they will be able to protect themselves and their citizens is really front of mind for them. SIMON: In an online post, President Trump basically dismissed the Iranian President's statement today that Iran would refrain from attacks on neighboring states unless they bombed Iran. What do you make of the president's statement? Does he have enough power to do that? HANNA: It's a good question. I mean, I think I would be wary at taking it at face value. Obviously, just yesterday we saw attacks on Gulf countries. And so I think it would be premature to assume that this is absolutely the start of a new direction. It would be a major de-escalation, but I'm skeptical, frankly, in terms of looking at how the war has unfolded, that this is really the next step for Iran in terms of its approach to retaliation. SIMON: And, Mr. Hanna, we see reports that the CIA might begin to rearm Iraqi Kurdish groups and send them into Iran. Do you think that's a possibility? What will be the effect? Do you think more non-state groups might become involved? HANNA: Well, it's clearly a possibility. We're hearing about it in press reports, and there's indications from the ground that there's something happening. You know, I wouldn't blow it out of proportion just yet. I think what it says is that U.S. policy is willing to consider regime destabilization as a potential outcome. And looking at the history of recent state failure in the region, whether that be in Iraq or Syria or Yemen or Libya, that should really be quite concerning because state failure in those places has been a real challenge to U.S. interests in recent years. SIMON: Well, help us add that up. What could regional instability mean? What would the practical effects be? HANNA: Well, if you have some kind of catastrophic success in the sense of destabilizing the Iranian regime, it's very unlikely that you'll dislodge the leadership entirely. There are supporters. There are military forces. There are the IRGC forces that have been for decades now the strongest military actors in Iran, a very big country. And what you might get if you do see further destabilization is civil strife, something like civil war. And it's very unlikely that that will stay contained within Iran's borders. As we saw with Iraq and Syria, these kinds of conflicts happening in the Middle East are not going to be contained. And so, while the Israelis, I think, seem quite comfortable with the idea of destabilization and a kind an incoherent Iran, I have my doubts that the United States can live with what that would mean for the region and the kinds of spillover effects that that might have into the Gulf and the way in which that might impact U.S. allies and partners in the region. SIMON: Michael Wahid Hanna of the International Crisis Group. Thanks so much for being with us. HANNA: Thanks for having me. Copyright &copy; 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record. 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