How weeks of war have reshaped Iran's negotiating position

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+ World How weeks of war have reshaped Iran's negotiating position March 24, 20264:39 AM ET Heard on Morning Edition A Martínez How weeks of war have reshaped Iran's negotiating position Listen &middot; 4:58 4:58 Transcript Toggle more options Download Embed Embed "> <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5757512/nx-s1-9700589" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> Transcript How has Iran's negotiating position changed after weeks of war? NPR's A Martinez talks to Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the London-based news site Amwaj.media. Sponsor Message A MARTÍNEZ, HOST: How is Iran's negotiating position changed after weeks of war? Let's ask Mohammad Ali Shabani. He's the editor of Amwaj.media. That's a news site based in London that focuses on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. Previously, he worked in Iran as editor of the Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs and as a researcher at the Iranian think tank, the Center for Strategic Research. So, Mohammad, in President Trump's telling, he extended that deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz based on productive talks with the Iranian regime. Does this suggest to you that Trump's threat to strike power plants actually worked?

+ MOHAMMAD ALI SHABANI: No. I would rather say that I think he realized the extent of the pushback that Iran would probably come up with. And I think primarily it was the Iranian threat to strike at power plants and also water desalination plants throughout the GCC. So these are all of America's Arab allies. And I think once he realized the extent of the pushback, it just didn't make any sense to place that on a Monday, given his behavior so far, which is to essentially have any kind of escalatory action put on the weekends right after markets close. MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. An Iranian state television framed it as a U.S. president backs down following Iran's firm warning. Mohammad, the Trump administration says that they were talking to a top person in the regime. Iran denied that it's negotiating with the U.S. directly, said it's responding indirectly. Can both sides be right on this? ALI SHABANI: The information I have so far, based on the sources I've spoken with in Tehran, is that the previous negotiator, Mr. Larijani, he's a former parliament speaker. He was a national security adviser. He was on the verge of having a telephone conversation with a senior U.S. official when he was killed by Israel. The current individual who's likely to go to Pakistan later this week is the current parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He's also a former IRGC commander. My information is that if he were to enter negotiations with the United States, that he would have full authority to come to an agreement. And I think, primarily, right now, the issue, what's really pushing the two sides very far apart, is the agenda, the extent of the demands. And from what I'm seeing, there are major differences. MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And NPR has confirmed there are some back-channel conversations happening. How effective, though, Mohammad, do you think they can be? ALI SHABANI: Essentially, the same problem presents itself now as we've seen throughout. It's that they need to speak directly and with full authority. The issue we've had is that the agenda items are very different. United States wants things that Iran is not willing to provide, and President Trump seems to think that with the help of war, he can leverage things that he couldn't before. But I - what I'm seeing on the other hand, is a precise opposite in some respects. It's that, for instance, Iran, right now, doesn't just want reparations for the damage from this war. It also wants to make sure that it never happens again. They're not going to sign a deal only to have another war in six months. And this complicates things a lot because how do you even sit down and get guarantees, security guarantees from the United States? And you need, obviously, third-party countries which have their own interests. MARTÍNEZ: You mentioned security guarantees. What would you describe as Tehran's top objectives in talks with the U.S. at the moment? ALI SHABANI: I think it's again, number one, making sure this doesn't happen again, that there is no mow the lawn kind of situation, where, you have Israel, I don't know, in next couple of weeks, next couple of months attacking again. I think another consideration for Iran, as well, is to make sure that its allies are also covered. So this means that they don't just want an Iran-U.S. cessation of hostilities. Ideally, again, need to make sure that Israel is also restrained, and in that vein, make sure that the regional alliance network is intact, that they want to make sure Iraq is not going to be bombed tomorrow, Lebanon is not going to be bombed tomorrow. And this goes down to the very agenda items, which is that the Trump administration wants Iran completely defanged. In the middle of a war, tell Iran, essentially, we want you to dismantle your only means of deterrence and defense, which are your missiles, and we want you to dismantle the entire regional policy and hand over your nuclear program. You know, this didn't work before the war. I'm not quite sure whether this is going to happen after a war or in the middle of a war. MARTÍNEZ: Mohammad, I mentioned how you're the editor of a news site that focuses on Iran. As someone that watches this region very, very closely and obviously has his ear to the ground on this, how are you feeling about how everything has unfolded? ALI SHABANI: I feel like we're going to reach some kind of inflection point soon. I think probably this weekend, we may either have some kind of breakthrough or some kind of escalation, massive escalation, possibly including America's Arab allies. Iran has already said it will hit power plants. It will hit desalination plants in the GCC if America takes action against its electricity network. I think if that happens, there's a high chance of Saudi Arabia getting involved, and that will completely - I think that things will spiral. It's not going to be good for anybody. MARTÍNEZ: Mohammad Ali Shabani is editor of Amwaj.media, a news site focused on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. Thank you, Mohammad. ALI SHABANI: Thank you so much, and have a good day. Copyright &copy; 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record. 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