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On X, influencers are using prediction markets to sow distrust about election results

View original article → Jun 9, 2026, 3:02 AM

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+ By Bobby Allyn , Jude Joffe-Block Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt poses for a selfie during a campaign event Sunday, May 31, 2026, in Los Angeles.

− Fresh Air Wild Card with Rachel Martin It's Been a Minute Planet Money Get NPR+ More Podcasts & Shows Search Newsletters NPR Shop Tiny Desk New Music Friday All Songs Considered Music Features Live Sessions About NPR Diversity Support Careers Press Ethics On X, influencers are using prediction markets to sow distrust about election results On X, posts about prediction markets are becoming the latest way for influencers to sow doubt about election results.

+ Jill Connelly/AP hide caption As vote tallies in the Los Angeles mayoral election trickled in slowly over the last week, unsubstantiated claims exploded on X that a fraudulent plot was underway to deprive the MAGA-backed former reality TV star Spencer Pratt the second-place slot to advance to the November runoff against incumbent Democrat Karen Bass. A portion of these unfounded conspiracy theories pointed to changing betting odds for the three top candidates on prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket to suggest something sinister is afoot with the vote count.

− Politics On X, influencers are using prediction markets to sow distrust about election results June 7, 20269:21 AM ET Heard on Weekend Edition Sunday By Jude Joffe-Block , Ayesha Rascoe On X, influencers are using prediction markets to sow distrust about election results Listen · 4:50 4:50 Transcript Toggle more options Download Embed Embed "> <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5846806/nx-s1-9800399" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> Transcript On X, posts about prediction markets are becoming the latest way for influencers to sow doubt about election results.

+ Some influencers supercharging such fraud claims online did so in posts sponsored by the companies themselves. Politics Spencer Pratt is 'winning the internet,' but can he become mayor of Los Angeles?

− Sponsor Message AYESHA RASCOE, HOST: Pro-Trump social media influencers are claiming that last Tuesday's mayoral election in Los Angeles was riddled with fraud.

+ "They are actually doing it.

− There's no evidence of wrongdoing in that race, just slow vote counting.

+ They are counting votes until SPENCER LOSES.

− But influencers have been citing odds on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket to reinforce their claims.

+ Someone DO SOMETHING," Trump-aligned influencer Mila Joy wrote to her half a million followers a day after the election as she reshared a Polymarket post with a graph showing that Pratt's betting odds were falling on the site. "Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?" questioned commentator David Freeman, who posts under the handle Gunther Eagleman on X, as he shared a Kalshi post showing the odds between Pratt and progressive Democrat Nithya Raman.

− And some of those same influencers are also being paid by those companies for promotion and visibility. Now, Kalshi says it's asking some influencers to take their posts down. Joining us to explain all of this is NPR's Jude Joffe-Block. Welcome.

+ The Associated Press called the second-place spot for Raman on Monday afternoon after her vote share overtook Pratt's on Sunday.

− JUDE JOFFE-BLOCK, BYLINE: Hi, good morning.

+ At the bottom of both X posts, the words "paid partnership" appear in tiny font, a subtle reference to the millions of dollars Kalshi and Polymarket have pumped into programs that pay influencers to reshare corporate posts as a way to boost engagement.

− RASCOE: So what's in these posts that Kalshi is asking influencers to take down?

+ The Los Angeles mayoral race is the clearest example yet of how prediction market posts about changing betting odds for candidates are being weaponized on X to sow doubt about the integrity of elections.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: Well, one of the influencers involved in this is a prominent Trump-aligned commentator named David Freeman.

+ Elections Reality TV stars throw their hats in the ring for public office It's likely a preview of what's to come this year ahead of the midterm election.

− He posts under the handle Gunther Eagleman.

+ Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly pervading ever more corners of daily life.

− And here's a recent video of his.

+ Their rise has set off dozens of legal battles and raised novel questions about the ways betting on just about anything can have real-world consequences. Now it appears they are driving the latest battlefield in political misinformation wars on X.

− (SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING) DAVID FREEMAN: Let's talk about California for a second.

+ "From the perspective of the influencer looking to get rich, their only job is to attract attention," Emerson Brooking, a disinformation expert at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, wrote in an email.

− You know they're cheating.

+ "They will do this by sharing markets that align with what their audiences want to see.

− I know they're cheating.

+ And if the betting markets are wrong, it is much wiser for them to allege fraud (and keep the lucrative promotions contract) rather than acknowledge that the gambling sites got it wrong." In recent days, Kalshi and Polymarket have attempted to rein in some of their paid influencers.

− You know they're cheating.

+ After NPR asked Kalshi about several partnership posts on Friday, the company said it told the influencers to take the posts down.

− We all know they're cheating.

+ Some of the posts, including Freeman's post questioning "CA cheating," have been deleted. Semafor first reported on Kalshi's crackdown.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: Now, the thing is, Freeman also has a paid partnership with Kalshi.

+ On Monday, Polymarket told NPR it, too, is pulling back its sponsorship of some creators who were spreading election falsehoods.

− He boosts the company's social media posts to his audience of over a million followers, and those posts are basically intended to draw people to bet on the site.

+ Joy's post is still live on X with the "paid partnership" tag, but the tag has been removed from posts by two other influencers paid by Polymarket. "Companies shouldn't be paying people to spread misinformation," said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, who has reviewed the sponsored posts that flew across X.

− Freeman is rooting for former reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor's race, and he shared a Kalshi post that showed Pratt's odds of making it to the runoff election had been falling on the betting site.

+ "In the Trump Republican Party, fraud allegations are going to be often received with a lot of enthusiasm, especially when people often get confused about the difference between the odds of someone winning and vote share." Paying influencers as social media promoters is a type of "growth hacking" tech startups often deploy to maximize the reach of their brand in an attempt to drive more users to the services. Planet Money Do prediction market bettors make anything better?

− Freeman added commentary that said, is California cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?

+ "It's a high-risk, high-reward situation," said Seton Hall University's Jess Rauchberg, who studies digital media culture.

− And that post had a paid partnership logo on it, which means he's getting paid for it by Kalshi. My colleague, Bobby Allen, asked Kalshi about that post, and others like it from other influencers they have partnerships with.

+ "But it's a strategy that gets people talking about the brand." Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, are both reining in paid posts from influencers after they spread falsehoods about the Los Angeles mayoral race.

− Kalshi got back to us on Friday afternoon and told us they were asking Freeman and other influencers who have made similar posts to take them down because they violated their policies.

+ Theo Marie-Courtois/AFP via Getty Images hide caption Kalshi and Polymarket have offered creators as much as $500 per post, according to two people who formerly worked on partnerships at Kalshi and Polymarket and who were not authorized to speak publicly about the programs.

− RASCOE: Kalshi's rival site is polymarket. What do we know about how they are handling posts like these?

+ Inside Kalshi, the approach has sparked debate over what responsibility the company has when creators promote its site by spreading misinformation and other harmful content across X, according to the former Kalshi employee.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: We never heard back from Polymarket, which operates mostly offshore and is less regulated.

+ A Kalshi spokesperson confirmed on Monday that the company now prohibits anyone in its affiliate program from questioning the integrity of an election or undermining a legal ruling or official determination about an election. Previously, the company took a mostly hands-off approach to what its affiliate creators posted to boost one of Kalshi's markets, according to the former Kalshi employee. Before the recent controversy, one of the only times Kalshi cut ties with a paid creator over a post promoting the company was when one of their contributors posted to X celebrating the death of conservative political activist Charlie Kirk, the former Kalshi employee said. Similarly at Polymarket, affiliate posts were given wide latitude, as long as the person posting plugged the company's markets, according to the former Polymarket employee.

− But there are a number of influencers with Polymarket partnerships who are also sowing doubt about the LA mayoral election while promoting Polymarket, and those posts are still up.

+ And there appeared to be little vetting of creators, with Polymarket tapping former Rep.

− And I should say, there's not been evidence of misconduct in this election.

+ Matt Gaetz as one of its paid contributors.

− But one kind of allegation we're seeing is people pointing to changes in betting market odds on prediction sites to try and suggest those fluctuations and those graphs are some kind of evidence of something suspicious when they just reflect betting behavior.

+ The U.S. House Ethics Committee found Gaetz paid an underage girl for sex.

− RASCOE: President Trump has also made unfounded fraud allegations about California's election, focused in on how long it's taking to count the votes.

+ On Monday, Polymarket said that while it does not have language specifically banning creators from posting election-related disinformation, any post denying the result of an election would violate its rules against spreading false and misleading information. Polymarket told NPR posts from two of the creators it works with have lost the "paid partnership" tag.

− Why is the vote count so slow in California?

+ It has not asked creators to delete any posts, but told them about the company's content guidelines.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: Well, yeah, here in California, everyone gets a mail ballot, and this election, a lot of people held on to their ballots until the last day.

+ While the company would not specify which creators, NPR confirmed "paid partnership" tags have been removed from Jun.

− And the process for verifying those vote-by-mail ballots take longer than those cast in person.

+ 4 posts by right-wing influencers Benny Johnson and Kangmin Lee sharing the same Polymarket post about Raman's rising odds on the betting site. Seton Hall University's Rauchberg said the crackdowns are just the latest example of how the rival companies are constantly trying to one-up each other. Technology 2 young billionaires are behind the prediction market boom.

− Also historically, the ballots that get counted later in the process skew more democratic, and that's been a source for conspiracy theories for years now.

+ They hate each other "They want to spread this rhetoric that 'Kalshi is for everyone, Polymarket is for everyone,'" she said.

− But those kinds of explanations rarely get the same kind of attention online as allegations of fraud. You know, and there's also an extra layer of potential confusion when it comes to posts about races on prediction markets because these posts announce that a candidate's odds have fallen to 8% or surged to 72%.

+ "They want to give the impression that they don't have a political affiliation, but consumers are becoming more savvy that both companies are engaging in a type of 'purity politics,' each trying to outdo the other over which is the best app to use." Not disclosing whether a social media post was sponsored is illegal under rules the Federal Trade Commission adopted in 2024.

− And they're talking about the betting market odds of whether someone will win or lose, not what the actual ballot count says, but not everyone is understanding that.

+ The Trump administration has not rolled back these rules, but it has also not announced any enforcement actions.

− RASCOE: Obviously, we have midterm elections where control of Congress is coming up in a few months.

+ The Los Angeles mayor race was particularly vulnerable to becoming the focus of election conspiracy theories for a number of reasons.

− What does this tell us about how those elections might be contested?

+ Prediction market data may have been one of them.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: It's not looking great.

+ Pratt, an outsider candidate who received outsized attention and engagement on X, was favored for second place on betting markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket's sites in the days before the election — even when the largest polls of likely voters showed him in third place. Election workers process ballots for the California state primary election at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center on June 5, 2026 in City of Industry, California.

− I spoke with Stephen Richer, who was the Maricopa County recorder in Arizona in the aftermath of the 2020 election and dealt with a lot of false claims about election fraud that cycle.

+ Justin Sullivan/Getty Images hide caption While the city's mayor is a nonpartisan office, a registered Republican like Pratt faced a challenge in heavily Democratic Los Angeles.

− He's very worried about what the LA election means for the rest of the year.

+ But some social media commentators cited his favorable betting odds as evidence he could reach the November runoff.

− STEPHEN RICHER: I think we're going to get punched in the face so badly on election denialism in November.

+ Posts about what betting markets are saying about a candidate can confuse voters who may not understand the difference between betting behavior and a poll, said Zarine Kharazian, a Ph.D candidate at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, who studies online rumors related to elections.

− JOFFE-BLOCK: He said the election denial movement has been able to normalize itself in recent years, and one sign of that could even be that these prediction market sites are so far happy to partner with influencers whose brands have been tied to trying to delegitimize elections that were not favorable to Trump.

+ "It runs the risk of confusing people into thinking that, 'Okay, these markets have the pulse on public sentiment about the election and who's going to win,' when that's not necessarily the case," Kharazian said.

− RASCOE: That's NPR's Jude Joffe-Block.

+ Heading into the Jun.

− Jude, thank you so much for joining us.

+ 2 primary, election experts were already worried that California's notoriously slow ballot count would provide the opportunity for baseless fraud allegations to blossom.

+ Election betting on prediction markets apps is set to boom ahead of midterms A large portion of voters in the state use mail-in ballots, a form of voting President Trump has tried to associate with fraud.

+ Election officials must verify mailed-in and dropped off ballots, making them slower to count.

− Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

+ The state accepts ballots that are postmarked on the day of the election that arrive within seven days. Ballots that are counted later in the process typically skew Democratic since more voters from that party embrace voting by mail.

− Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary.

+ This phenomenon has been the basis for unfounded allegations of fraud in recent years, including by Trump. The challenge has been particularly stark this year because so many Californians waited until Election Day to drop off their ballots, said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research. State officials are "doing what they've always done — counting all the ballots, under transparent observation from the candidates and parties, and reporting each batch as soon as they can," Becker said, "yet the profiteers and grifters are loudly echoing our foreign adversaries in spreading lies designed to delegitimize our transparent election process." President Trump himself has claimed without evidence that there was fraud in the Los Angeles mayoral's race.

− Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio.

+ He called the election race "rigged" in a Truth Social post early Monday, and wrote it was "not possible" for Pratt to lose to Raman after his initial lead when vote counting began.

− Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication.

+ The first assistant U.S.

− The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

+ Attorney for the Los Angeles area, Bill Essayli, announced on X days earlier that his office had multiple election fraud investigations underway. Over the weekend, Essayli debunked one popular conspiracy theory circulating on X — that Pratt had received zero votes in a ballot count update — as false. Election experts say the baseless fraud allegations in California do not bode well for the upcoming November midterm season. "I think we're going to get punched in the face so badly on election denialism in November," said Stephen Richer, the former Republican recorder for Maricopa County, Arizona, who dealt with baseless fraud allegations in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

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+ He is now a legal fellow at the Cato Institute and a senior fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Richer recalled that during the 2020 election, people trying to undermine the election results latched on to graphs that showed a blue line representing former President Joe Biden's totals suddenly jump higher as ballots were counted. "And so now it seems that they're using these prediction market graphs to tell a similar story," Richer said. Sponsor Message Become an NPR sponsor