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Tropical Storm Bertha moves along the Gulf Coast but damage is expected to be limited
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That's in part because of a strong El Niño. This weather pattern drives up average global temperatures and generally tamps down hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Weather Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high But abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic can also increase the likelihood of stronger storms, says Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, Fla. Atmospheric conditions play a large role, but Berardelli compares the warm water's impact on storms to fuel for a car.
"The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it's warmer than normal," Berardelli said.
Sea surface temperatures are unusually high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes are born. Temperatures are higher in part because the oceans have absorbed most of the extra heat trapped by planet-warming pollution from burning oil, gas and coal.
In the last 30 years, while the numbers of hurricanes have decreased, the percentage of more powerful category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased, said Klotzbach, from Colorado State University.
"Overall, very broad brush, when you have warmer waters, that does tend to load the dice towards stronger storms," Klotzbach said.
The biggest piece of advice: make an evacuation plan ahead of time, according to Ready.gov, a site run by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. People should know where to go in an emergency and how to get there. They should also consider the elderly, disabled neighbors and loved ones who may need assistance.
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It's also important to document valuables and have up-to-date records to file insurance claims.
Rhome, from the National Hurricane Center, cautions that people should not underestimate the potential power of the 2026 storm season just because the El Niño weather pattern is expected to limit the number of storms.
"We need to continue to prepare for hurricane season just like any other," he said.
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− Fresh Air Wild Card with Rachel Martin It's Been a Minute Embedded Get NPR+ More Podcasts & Shows Search Newsletters NPR Shop Get NPR+ Tiny Desk New Music Friday All Songs Considered Music Features Live Sessions About NPR Diversity Support Careers Press Ethics Tropical Storm Bertha is the second of the season Storm damage is expected to be limited because the El Niño weather pattern will counter its worst effects.
+ Fresh Air Wild Card with Rachel Martin It's Been a Minute Embedded Get NPR+ More Podcasts & Shows Search Newsletters NPR Shop Get NPR+ Tiny Desk New Music Friday All Songs Considered Music Features Live Sessions About NPR Diversity Support Careers Press Ethics What forecasters expect this hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha edges along The El Niño weather pattern could limit how many Atlantic storms form this year.
− But unusually warm waters in the Atlantic means the risk of destructive storms is still high.
+ But unusually warm waters temperatures mean the risk of destructive storms is still high.
− Weather Tropical Storm Bertha moves along the Gulf Coast but damage is expected to be limited July 22, 20265:15 AM ET By
Ava Berger
This NOAA satellite image taken at 10:30 a.m.
+ Weather What forecasters expect this hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha edges along July 22, 20265:15 AM ET By
Ava Berger
This NOAA satellite image taken at 10:30 a.m.
− NOAA via AP hide caption
Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue moving along the northern Gulf from western Florida to Southeastern Louisiana Wednesday, bringing up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds as high as 50 miles per hour.
+ NOAA via AP hide caption
Tropical Storm Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it's expected to track along the northern Gulf Coast for several days, hitting Gulf communities with up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds as high as 50 miles per hour.
− Climate Rain, storm surge and wind: How to understand your hurricane risk Weather forecasting models do not predict the storm will get stronger, says Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
+ Forecasters don't expect Bertha to strengthen into a hurricane.
− That's in part because of strong wind shear from the northeast. It's essentially a change in wind speed or direction over a short distance. The wind shear, which will push the bulk of the weather offshore, will also reduce the rainfall totals, said Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
+ But warmer waters in the Atlantic means the risk of destructive storms for the season is still high.
− "We're not expecting a big flood event like we normally would with a slow-moving system," Rhome said.
+ Climate Rain, storm surge and wind: How to understand your hurricane risk Unusually warm Gulf waters increase risk of powerful storms Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season.
− "As long as that continues to play out, Louisiana especially, could dodge some of the worst of the impacts."
A tropical storm watch has been in effect for New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana since 4 p.m. Tuesday. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the coastlines of Mississippi and Louisiana. Isolated areas of flash flooding are possible from western Florida through the upper Texas coast, according to the National Weather Service.
Click on the links for more information on Tropical Storm Bertha in your region: New Orleans, Alabama, North Central Florida, Austin and Houston.
Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season.
− Here's how to prepare your home for flooding People should also check their insurance policy to determine how much coverage they have in the event their home is damaged or destroyed by a hurricane.Homeowners should also check the size of their deductible – it's how much money they'll have to pay out of pocket before the insurance company picks up the rest of the tab for a claim.
+ Here's how to prepare your home for flooding People should also check their insurance policy to determine how much coverage they have in the event their home is damaged or destroyed by a hurricane.
+ Homeowners should also check the size of their deductible – it's how much money they'll have to pay out of pocket before the insurance company picks up the rest of the tab for a claim.
+ A previous version of this story incorrectly said that Tropical Storm Bertha has made landfall. In fact, the storm is still offshore.